Time Series Modelling and Simulating the Lockdown Scenarios of COVID-19 in Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Introduction: Since the first published cases of Coronavirus disease known as COVID-19 in city Wuhan Hubei Province China, up until to time preparation this report mid-September 2020, more than 30 million people have been infected all over world. In March 300,000 reported Iraq. This study aims represent data analysis, modelling and forecasting approaches presented Kurdistan Region Methodology: The project involves mathematical models for artificial simulations using particles. study, series including Simple Exponential Model, Holt’s Method Brown’s Models used future potential rates area. A conducted observe possibilities virus spread a virtual world which represents quarter Erbil. Results: outcome shows how Kurdistan, what are current compare with neighbour regions. clearly that still sporadically appearing, risk second third waves infections is high. Conclusions: Therefore, regional government must reduce unnecessary gatherings lowest possible level. scientific registry system statistics be put place rigorously updated times. We recommend officials use nationwide database provided public monitor movement every individual, prevent further spread.